Free Money for You and Me

Earlier this week I came to learn about Revolution Money Exchange. It’s a totally legitimate money transfer website, similar to PayPal but without the fees! There is a daily transfer limit of $1,000, and a monthly transaction limit of $2,500. You can also hold no more than $2,500 in the account. Be sure to check them out and if you sign up, you’ll get $25 and I get $10! You’ll also get $10 for each person that you refer between now and April 15, 2008.


Refer A Friend using Revolution Money Exchange


Update: The $25 offer has been extended for another month until May 15, 2008, so it’s still not too late!

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  • Who is to Blame for the Credit Crunch?

    There are many lenders currently under investigation for fraud, perhaps most notably the nation’s largest mortgage lender, Countrywide Financial. Even if Countrywide is found to be guilty of fraud, one company alone (even if it is responsible for 20% of the mortgages in the U.S.) cannot be to blame for the woes of the credit and housing markets. If anything is to blame, it is the market itself.

    As mortgage rates began to fall towards all-time lows early in 2004, real estate prices skyrocketed. Thus began an insatiable appetite for home ownership, and lenders began to offer all kinds of mortgage products that would allow consumers to finance as much as possible for as low a monthly payment as possible. It was a snowball effect that caused a housing bubble that eventually popped.

    Unfortunately, a lot of time and money will now be spent with investigating lenders. Time and effort will also go into the development of new regulations to prevent such a calamity in the future. At this point there is little that can be done to rectify the problem, other than to simply let the markets take their course. The reality is that the banks have already paid the penalty with the increasing number of defaults they are experiencing. Most of the new regulations will probably be unnecessary, as the banks have learned their lesson and have become very restrictive with their lending practices in light of what is taking place in the real estate market and lending market.

    If you still insist that someone should be to blame, you could point the finger at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and former chairman Alan Greenspan. Although mortgages do not directly follow the Federal Funds Rate, they do tend to trend along with the Federal Funds Rate when it experiences rapid and drastic changes. From January of 2001 to June of 2003, the Fed Funds Rate dropped from 6.5% all the way down to 1%. They remained at 1% for a year, until the Fed began raising rates again in June of 2004. There are others that also share my view that Greenspan is partially to blame for the credit crunch.

    Not only did the Fed’s monetary policy help fuel the fire for the spike in home prices, but remarks by the Fed chairman did as well:

    American consumers might benefit if lenders provided greater mortgage product alternatives to the traditional fixed-rate mortgage. To the degree that households are driven by fears of payment shocks but are willing to manage their own interest rate risks, the traditional fixed-rate mortgage may be an expensive method of financing a home.

    I think it is outrageous for the Fed chairman to make such remarks when fixed rate mortgages are at an all-time low (that remark was made on February 23, 2004). Certainly the banks were more than glad to oblige him, and they offered all sorts of exotic products to allow borrowers the highest mortgage balance possible for the lowest monthly payment. If you combine a high mortgage balance, an interest rate that is adjusting upwards, and little (or negative) home equity, you have a high probability that a default will take place.

    Not only will a homeowner have a difficult time with the higher monthly payment on an adjusting rate, but with little or negative home equity, they may not be able to refinance into a fixed rate mortgage. Even if a borrower somehow manages to pass the strict requirements that lenders now have, the new fixed rate is very likely to be higher than the rate they had previously. The new payments are likely to be higher because of the higher rate as well as the principal component, which may have not been present in their prior mortgage if they had an interest-only loan.

    The Fed may have prevented a recession in 2001, but the housing and lending markets are paying for it now. Now the Fed is lowering the Fed Funds Rate again, in hopes to prevent a recession from taking place. Sound familiar? Fortunately, this time there won’t be another housing bubble since the last one is still deflating. I think this time the actions of the Fed will result in the cheapening of our currency. It has already begun to happen, and is likely to get worse. Because the U.S. economy depends so much on foreign exports, the current actions of the Fed will most likely result in inflation.

    Adding insult to injury, the bursting of the housing bubble has also contributed to the decline of the dollar. Foreign investors hold trillions of dollars in mortgage-backed securities. The problems with the housing and lending markets have led to a huge sell-off in these securities, lowering the demand for the U.S. dollar. If it wasn’t for foreign monetary policy, the decline of the dollar would probably have been much worse than it has been.

    I think some moderate inflation will be necessary to allow household incomes to catch up with home prices. Even with the deflation of the housing bubble, home prices are still very high relative to incomes. If one is to purchase a home today with a traditional fixed rate mortgage, either their income needs to rise, the price of real estate must fall further, mortgage rates need to come down, or some combination of the three. Rising incomes will also help to lessen the blow of the problems with foreclosures and defaults. Lower foreclosures and defaults will improve the problems with the secondary mortgage markets, which will restore some confidence with foreign investors in that market. Eventually when things settle down the U.S. dollar should stabilize as well. It will certainly be interesting to see how things play out.

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  • Is the Worst Behind Us in the Stock Markets?

    Yesterday I saw an interesting poll on Yahoo! Finance that asked, “With the stock market showing renewed strength is it safe to buy?” As of now, the results are as follows:

    Yes. We’ve bottomed. 28%
    Stocks will trade sideways. 30%
    No. This is a head-fake. 42%

    64410 Votes to date

    It is rare for me to be in the majority, but I agree that this indeed is a head fake. It is a relatively well known fact that the biggest one-day gains in the stock market tend to happen during bear markets. It would seem the majority participating in the poll are either aware of this fact or are aware that the economy is still in a relatively poor state. I think as the year progresses, there will be economic reports that indicate the economy is either stalling or falling. I think there will be more pain to come in the stock markets.

    Is there anything you can do to protect yourself? One thing you can do is buy put options to hedge against losses in any long positions you have. The problem is that everyone else is doing this as well, and it is driving up option prices/implied volatility. Just take a look at the chart for the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) since October of last year, when the market indices reached all-time highs.

    CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

    That means you will be paying a lot for any “stock insurance policies” as I like to call them, which will effectively lower your returns. If you’re in it for the long haul and you’re feeling bearish, you could always write covered calls and receive some income to help dampen any potential losses. Now would also be a good time to write covered calls because implied volatility is on the rise, which means you can receive bigger premiums. Of course, if I’m wrong and the markets do continue the upward trend, you could potentially be limiting your gains by writing covered calls.

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  • New Peer-to-peer Lender for Student Loans

    Techcrunch has an article today about a new peer-to-peer lender for student loans called Fynanz. According to the lender FAQ, they will guarantee 50-100% of the loan if the borrower defaults. There are a few reasons why I have my doubts that Fynanz will work:

    • Interest rates on student loans tend to be pretty low. It will be difficult to attract students to Fynanz, when they can just get a traditional student loan at a lower interest rate.
    • If the rates do get bid down low enough to compete with traditional student loans, the rates may not be high enough to attract investors, even if a minimum of 50% of the principal is guaranteed.
    • As with traditional student loans, the term of the loans are long. At a glance, I looked at some of the loans and I saw them ranging from 10-20 years. This is an extraordinarily long time for an investor to lock up money in an illiquid investment. They will need to eventually provide a secondary market to provide liquidity, otherwise they will most certainly be doomed to the deadpool.
    • As with traditional student loans, borrowers have the option to defer payments. Many investors won’t like the idea of waiting for up to several years before receiving their first payment.

    Time will tell if Fynanz will survive, and I will certainly be watching with great interest.

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  • Yahoo! Attempts to Increase Market Value with Investor Presentation

    Today Yahoo! announced that they filed an investor presentation which details the company’s three-year financial plan and strategic initiatives. If you ask me, it is simply a meager attempt to raise the stock price so that Yahoo! can justify the denial of Microsoft’s bid to buy them out for $31 a share. It does appear to have had some effect, as the stock is up to around $27.25 which is about a 5.4% increase over yesterday’s close. However, the entire NASDAQ is up over 3% today, so much of that 5.4% increase is a result from today’s overall market sentiment. Yahoo! is still down over 9% from the high it reached shortly after Microsoft made the buyout offer. Yahoo!’s stock price still has to make up considerable ground (over a 13% from the current price) to even reach Microsoft’s bid price, let alone reach some value considerably beyond that.

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  • The Number One Mistake that Would-be Real Estate Investors Make

    I met with my friend’s wife this weekend to learn more about her thriving real estate business. She helped to confirm what I suspected to be the number one mistake that new investors make: they expect to make good returns by paying “retail” prices for real estate. By “retail” prices, I mean that they pay the same price for a property as someone would pay for their primary residence. It is very difficult (if not impossible) to make money in real estate by paying fair market value for investment properties, especially in today’s real estate market.

    The real estate business is very much like any other in many ways. If you are buying and selling widgets on eBay and you buy your widgets for retail price at Wal-Mart, there is no way in hell you are going to make any money. You have to buy your widgets at a heavily discounted price in order to turn a profit. The same goes for real estate. If you are going to make money in real estate, you have to buy properties at a heavily discounted price.

    Even if you use the cheapest kind of financing possible (i.e. an interest-only loan), it would still be difficult to make positive cash flow on a rental property. It would also be difficult to try to make upgrades to the property to sell it for a profit, if you paid fair market value for the property. The closing costs, holding costs, not to mention the cost of upgrades and repairs would erode your profit. Even if you paid cash for the property, it is may still be difficult to simply recover upgrade costs unless you made a major improvement such as adding a bedroom and/or bathroom.

    The best way to mitigate risk when investing real estate is to make sure you pay as little as possible for investment properties. I’m talking about paying 65-70% on the dollar or less, not a discount of a mere 5-10% of fair market value. The less you pay, the more room for profit it will give you for recovering closing costs, holding costs, and the cost of repairing and upgrading the property. It also leaves room for positive cash flow if you plan on buying, holding, and renting (which is what my friend’s wife does). If you do ever decide to take the plunge and get into investing in real estate, be sure you are getting a steal on the properties you buy. Otherwise, you could very likely have a bad experience and will never invest in real estate ever again.

    Of course, the big secret is how can you possibly manage to buy a home for 65% on the dollar. Perhaps that will be another article for another time, but there are many books and resources on the internet that will tell you how to do it. It is a matter of doing your research and acting on what you’ve learned. The biggest challenge (especially for an analytical person such as myself) is actually taking action after becoming educated with good information.

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  • Receiving Dividends from Non-Dividend Stocks

    If you own 100 shares or more in a company that does not pay dividends but that does trade options, you can still receive income from your stock by writing covered calls. When you write a call, you are selling a derivative (financial contract whose value derives from the value of the underlying stock) that gives someone else the option to buy (typically) 100 shares of the underlying stock at a specific price (strike price). If the buyer of the contract decides to exercise the option (buy the stock at the strike price), you would be obligated to sell the shares at the strike price. With a covered call you already own the shares of the underlying stock, hence the call is “covered.” In other words, you won’t have a short position in the stock if someone exercises the call option(s) you sold. In my opinion, there’s little reason not to write covered calls if you hold 100 shares or more in a stock that has options.

    So what’s the catch? Covered calls can limit your gains if the stock increases rapidly prior to the expiration of the contract. For example, say Microsoft is trading around $28 a share and you own 100 shares. You decide to write a covered call for the $30-strike expiring next month. You sell the single call contract for next month, let’s say for $0.60. So you receive $60 in premium (less commissions) for the contract. Before the contract expires, Microsoft makes a surprise announcement and the stock surges $4 to reach $32 a share. Because you’ve sold the covered call for $30, your gain on the stock will be capped at $30 because of your contractual obligation to sell at that price. You will make $2.60 (the $2 increase plus the $0.60 premium), however if you had kept the stock you could have made $4 a share instead.

    If you ask me, covered calls are still a great deal as long as you are selling calls that are well out-of-the money. Selling out-of-the-money means you are selling the call at a strike higher than the current stock price. You should select a strike that would give that would provide a satisfactory annualized gain if the stock hits the strike, but that also provides adequate income if it does not. In the Microsoft example, if the stock price were to hit $30, the appreciation in price and call premium would provide a total of $2.60 profit within a period of one month. $2.60 on a $28 stock is nearly 10% and on an annualized basis would provide more than a 110% return. Anyone who expects better than a 110% return investing in stocks is probably setting unrealistic expectations. I would also hesitate to call them an investor and they may be better labeled as a gambler.

    Even if Microsoft weren’t to reach $30 by the time the contract expired, you would keep the $0.60 per share in premium you received and the contract would expire worthless. The following month you could write another covered call at the $30-strike for about $0.60 again (assuming the stock doesn’t make a drastic drop before then). On an annualized basis, $0.60 a month on a $28 stock is still a 25% return. That means Microsoft could stay completely flat on the year and you would still make a 25% return. In this example the covered call provides what I would consider adequate income (25% annualized) if stock doesn’t hit the strike, as well as an excellent return if the stock does hit the strike (110% annualized).

    However, if Microsoft were to experience a drastic drop, say down to $20, the $30 call for the following month would not pay nearly as much (maybe even only $0.05). If a stock has dropped well below your cost basis it may not be worth it for you to write covered calls, unless you are okay with the possibility of realizing a loss. Let’s say Microsoft does drop down to $20 the following month and your cost basis was $28 per share. In order to receive a similar amount of premium as the prior month, you would probably have to write the $22.50 call instead of the $30 call. If you were to write the $22.50 call, receive $0.60 in premium, and the stock were to rally, you would be in big trouble. If the contract expires and Microsoft is priced higher than $22.50, you would realize a $4.30 loss ($22.50 sale price minus $28 cost basis plus $1.20 premium from the calls written over the period of two months). If the stock were to up more than $23.70 ($1.20 above the $22.50 strike), you would have realized more loss than if you would have just held onto the stock without writing the second covered call.

    You do have to be careful when the stock is well-below your cost basis and you perform covered calls. Many investors write calls as soon as they buy the stock. For this reason, a covered call strategy is also sometimes also referred to as a buy-write. Performing a buy-write is one way of ensuring you receive an acceptable premium in terms of your cost basis. Please note that this strategy can just as easily be used with stocks that pay dividends as well as stocks that do not. You will likely receive more income from covered calls than you would from dividends anyway, so certainly the strategy applies to dividend stocks as well. In fact, Microsoft does pay a dividend. However, at less than a 2% dividend yield, the dividend income pales in comparison to the income covered calls on Microsoft could provide.

    If it sounds like something you’re interested in investing in, but would rather have someone else manage it, there are actually a few buy-write index funds that use the strategy. For example, the iPath CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite Index ETN (ticker BWV) performs buy-write transactions on S&P 500 stocks.
    iPath CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite Index ETN vs. S&P 500

    As you can see, the index fund has tended to outperform the S&P 500 during the time frame displayed, since the covered calls provide some income to offset losses. It is also interesting to note that between the middle of September of 2007 and the middle of October of 2007, the S&P outperformed the fund. This is because the S&P experienced a drastic rally in this period and the gains in the fund were capped by the covered calls. The S&P increased about 6% during this period and the fund only increased by about 2%. However, shortly after the rally the S&P it also experienced a steep drop. The iPath CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite Index performed much better during that period. The index fund lost about 3% but the S&P fell about 10%.

    If you are long on stocks and/or index funds, you should definitely consider adding covered calls as part of your overall investment strategy. Disclaimer: The stock and index fund mentioned in this article are provided for informational and illustration purposes only. The securities and derivatives discussed are for your edification and are not intended to be recommendations. If you are interested in learning more, I highly recommend reading more about options. The Options Industry Council has a lot of excellent information about options, covered calls, and other strategies as well.

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  • Having Trouble Refinancing? Borrow from a Rich Friend or Family Member

    I was talking with a friend that recently purchased his home with an ARM and did 100% financing. With little (or possibly negative equity with home prices dropping), he will certainly have a very difficult time refinancing into a fixed-rate when his rate begins to adjust. As it so happens, his mother-in-law recently inherited a large sum of money. More than likely he will end up borrowing from her and refinancing his mortgage with her. I told him I think it is a great idea, and it is basically peer-to-peer lending on a grand scale. Here are some of the many benefits of borrowing from a friend of family member:

    • Very low closing costs
    • Basically you will just have to pay the local and state government some fees (doc stamps, taxes, recording fees, etc.) for the documentation.

    • Quick recovery of closing costs
    • Because of the low closing costs, it won’t take very long at all to recover your closing costs. It will likely take on the order of a few months as opposed to years with a traditional refinance.

    • Low fixed rate
    • Your friend and relative may even be kind enough to loan to you at 0%, but a fair rate would be something between that of a standard 30-year fixed loan with an institution (assuming that is the term you use) and the interest rate of a high-balance money market account.

    • Potentially higher cash flow for borrower
    • Depending on your current financing situation, because of the lower rate, the refinance may leave more money in your pocket each month.

    • Potentially higher cash flow for lender
    • If the interest rate is higher than that of a high-balance money market account, the lender will enjoy better cash flow as well. Technically speaking, the amortization of the loan will also provide increased cash flow. However, it isn’t additional income since it is additional cash going towards the balance and the balance of the loan (investment) is declining.

    Of course, when there are benefits there are also disadvantages as well. In this case, it is the potential ill-will if you were to ever default on the loan or make late payments. So I will offer the following disclaimer: if you are late with payments or default on your loan, a family member may disown or oust you from the family, a friend may never forgive you and will no longer be your friend, and in either case you may be sued and your home may be foreclosed. In other words, I’m well aware that what I’m suggesting in this article probably goes against everything you’ve probably ever heard about borrowing/lending money to friends and family. Now you are aware of it as well.

    That being said, there is one major disadvantage for the lender. Even if you do everything by the book and set up a note and everything, if the lender ever wants to sell the note it would likely have to be at a significant discount of face value (because of the low interest rate). So the lender is more or less locked into the investment until the note matures or the home is sold. All-in-all I think it is a fairly good deal for the borrower and lender as long as both parties understand the terms, conditions, and risks.

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  • Back Assward Yahoo! Class Action Lawsuits

    Class action lawsuits made by shareholders typically take place after the stock price of a company has dropped significantly. The lawsuits are filed in hopes to find some restitution for losses. Unfortunately, by the time a class action suit is filed, the damage has already been done and rarely do the shareholders receive any significant recovery of losses. Some board members may be ousted, indictments may take place, and perhaps some sentences made, but in my opinion class action suits do very little to help shareholders. The attorneys are typically the biggest winners.

    Therefore, it must stand to reason that when class action lawsuits follow a 50% increase in the stock price, the lawsuits must have some merit. Oddly enough, I believe that this is the case with the slew of class action lawsuits that have been made against Yahoo! for denying Microsoft’s bid to buy them out. On February 1, 2008, Microsoft made an offer to acquire Yahoo! for $31 a share. The stock skyrocketed almost 50% overnight. Ten days later Yahoo! denied the bid, stating that it undervalued the company. The class action lawsuits came shortly after.

    Just as rare as it is for a class action to come after a huge increase in the stock price, I think the Yahoo! class action lawsuits are justified. I hope that it will also result in a rare win for the shareholders. It will be difficult for Yahoo! to ignore the loud and disgruntled mob, especially when it is well within the power of the board of directors to unlock the value being sought. Although Yahoo! is finding it difficult to “swallow its pride” and accept the bid, ultimately it is probably in the best interest of the shareholders to allow the acquisition to take place. Yahoo! is currently scrambling to make a better deal with someone (anyone) else, but they will be hard-pressed to come up with something that is going to satisfy the shareholders and provide the value they deserve.

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  • The 2008 Prosper Days Blogger Panel

    I’m very pleased that I was asked to sit on the blogger panel at Prosper Days. If I hadn’t been invited, I probably would not have made the trip. The other panelists on the blogger panel were Jim Bruene, Editor in Chief of the Online Banking Report and NetBanker blog; Kevin Gillett, Editor in Chief of the Official Prosper Blog and CTO of Panoramic Software; and Dave McClure, Master of 500 Hats. I was in excellent company and I really enjoyed the discussion that took place.

    I was a bit surprised to learn that we were the only session taking place in our time slot. With no other session taking place, everyone was observing the blogger panel. I was surprisingly at ease and wasn’t all that nervous. It probably helped that there was a crew filming the session with 10,000 watt light bulbs that made it difficult to see the crowd. It also helped that I hadn’t prepared a whole lot and simply responded to questions with my experiences and knowledge.

    I’m anxious for the video to come out so that I can see how I performed. It’s difficult for me to assess my own performance, because it almost seemed as if I would just open my mouth and words would come out. I have a difficult time recollecting the things I said and how well I answered the queries. I’ll post a link to the video as soon as it’s available, along with my self-assessment.

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